FXCM, a bit more serious - Page 8 - Ajarn Forum

Whitey · 26th November 2007, 13:59

Likewise is the one to ask, but I will chime in with some BS. If you compare the violatility of the Euro vs it's all time lows against the dollar, I still think it is could move up to 1.56 or 1.57 before it would raise too much of an eyebrow. Remember the Euro debut at 1.18, it's all time low is 0.82. No one raised the warning flag then and the everyone thought that is where the Euro would stay long term.

likewise · 26th November 2007, 16:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by raycarey

like many (i suppose), i wish i'd bought the euro a few months back...but my thinking at the time was, "how much higher could it possibly go".

let me ask you likewise.....would you still buy the euro today, or IYO is the run over?

Wait for a retracement and then go in long again. At 1.4780 if it breaks that it might go down for a while, but the main trend is up up up

esoteric1 · 26th November 2007, 16:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by likewise

Wait for a retracement and then go in long again.

before the next US Fed meeting...if they lower rates again, the US Dollar has much further to fall. However, opinion seems to be leaning in the direction that they won't.

Who knows?

likewise · 26th November 2007, 17:14

Eur/usd will hit 1.50 too many bulls got their positions open and their TP's set for 1.50, no stopping it now.

esoteric1 · 26th November 2007, 17:34

btw:

Dollar no longer welcome at Taj Mahal - Independent Online Edition > News & Advice

likewise · 26th November 2007, 17:36

tafy68 · 26th November 2007, 18:10

Might be a good time to go long on the gbp/jpy for longish term. It just hit some major support last week and it should see some gains this week.

likewise · 26th November 2007, 18:29

We're in

.

esoteric1 · 26th November 2007, 18:55

USD below 75 today:

esoteric1 · 11th December 2007, 19:53

something for you FOREX traders to consider.

No guts no glory, eh?

Safe Haven | Dollar

Quote:

The dollar could still spike a bit lower but bottom line is that individuals should now be looking at buying the dollar and not selling it.

likewise · 11th December 2007, 20:50

Not just yet, today the Fed will probably cut interest rates. But I do agree that anytime soon it's time again to buy the greenback.

Whitey · 11th December 2007, 21:34

I agree likewise, everything is gettng out there in the open. Soon, the fallout won't be able to get much worse.

Too many other countries are too intertwined in investments in the US. Most of the purchases of the sub prime debt were foreign investors.....once the losses start to mount in Europe and elsewhere, there very well might be a rush back to the dollar. And it could be a mad rush.

likewise · 11th December 2007, 22:13

Right, I think as from of next week or maybe a bit earlier the Dollar will start gaining strength again. Euro too high will hurt European exporters so eventually BOE will intervene to put a hold on the euro's strength.

esoteric1 · 12th December 2007, 02:50

Wow! Dow investors initially don't like .25 Fed cut:

dollar holds steady

Whitey · 12th December 2007, 14:32

Actually, I pu the change out further, Likewise and it's gona be a storm. The subprime crisis is priced into the dollar. The largest S&L(and 6thlargest bank) in the US, WaMu is on the verge of collapse with 8 billion in impending losses over the next year and less than 2 billion cash on hand, something has to give. Despite their announcement and UBS's announcement, the dollar has stayed steady.

The fed is ramping down interest rates not to avert a recession, that's already a given, but to avert a depression. The ECB isn't taking any action and they could find themselves with their pants down after the fact, as the Euro prices in subprime losses and their own economic downturn, the dollar will come storming back in value.

But I think that is about 3 to 6 months. I think you'll know it's in full force when the dollar storms back under 1.40. I wouldn't bet on it before then.