Aid agencies predict 'dramatic' rise in Burma death toll | World news | guardian.co.uk
Aid agencies today said they expected the death toll from the cyclone that devastated Burma to rise "dramatically".
The official death toll from the disaster is 22,000, with 41,000 missing, but the UN said it was expecting a huge increase in those numbers.
World Vision said it believed the death toll would reach at least 80,000.
More than 1 million people have been left homeless by the disaster, according to the latest UN assessment.
"We estimate that upwards of 1 million people are currently in need of shelter and life-saving assistance," Richard Horsey, a spokesman for the UN office of humanitarian affairs, told Reuters.
"There are large swathes of the lower Irrawaddy delta completely under water. We are talking 5,000 square kilometres - it's a vast area."
He warned that the number of fatalities could rise "dramatically" beyond the figure given by the authorities.
Relief workers who penetrated the worst-hit areas in the rice-growing belt of the Irrawaddy delta, south-west of the main city, Rangoon, said they had seen hundreds of bodies floating in paddy fields.
The Burmese government identified the 15 townships in the delta that had suffered most.
Seven of those had lost 90% to 95% of their homes, with 70% of their populations dead or missing. The community of Bogalay was said to have been wiped out, with 10,000 people feared dead.
"With all those dead mostly floating in the water at this point, you can get some idea of the conditions on the ground," Horsey said.
"It's a major logistical challenge. The top priorities are water purification tablets, plastic sheeting, basic medical kits, bed nets and emergency food."
Burma's normally secretive regime has been forced to go public over the scale of the crisis.
The information minister, Kyaw Hsan, staged a rare news conference at which he admitted that the authorities were struggling to cope with the disaster.
It is beginning to rival Asia's worst cyclone, which hit Bangladesh in 1991 and killed 143,000 people.
"The task is very wide and extensive, and the government needs the cooperation of the people and wellwishers from at home and abroad," the minister said. "We will not hide anything."
A UN plane carrying 25 tonnes of emergency supplies has been cleared for entry, but specialist UN teams and staff from international aid agencies are still having difficulty securing visas.
The military government today began deploying its own helicopters to drop food and water to those marooned in the Irrawaddy delta, but campaigners against the regime said it was not doing enough to help its citizens.
"We are five days into the disaster, and most people have still not received any aid," Mark Farmaner, the director of the Burma Campaign UK, said.
"If this carries on, more lives will be lost from hunger and disease than from the cyclone itself."
Farmaner called on the international community to do more to challenge the regime's restrictions on aid.
The US, which pledged $3m (£1.5m) to UN agencies to help with emergency food distribution, has navy ships in the area.
Washington said the ships could be used in the aid distribution effort, but the Burmese government - which accuses the US of fomenting revolt in Burma - is unlikely to allow them to enter its waters.
"Let the US come and help you," the US president, George Bush, said yesterday.
However, the regime is unlikely to have been impressed by the occasion he used to make the announcement, signing legislation awarding the Congressional Gold Medal to the Burmese democracy advocate Aung San Suu Kyi.
The EU announced that it was giving €2m (£1.5m) to the aid effort, while China said it would give $1m.
The authoritarian Burmese regime - which has held power for 46 years – did, however, relent over plans to hold a controversial constitutional referendum on Saturday, which analysts said would cement the generals' hold on power.
The government said it would be delayed until May 24 in the worst-hit areas of Rangoon and the Irrawaddy delta.
Given the unprecedented scale of the havoc wrought by the storm surge and catastrophic winds, the two-week delay appeared optimistic.
"We're talking of something on the scale of the [2004] tsunami," Andrew Kirkwood, the Burma country director for Save the Children, said.
"Initially, we thought we were looking at a response over a couple of months, but now it looks like a couple of years."
Teams from the agency have been in the outlying areas of Rangoon and Irrawaddy region assessing the extent of the destruction to gauge the level of need.
But with so many homes resembling piles of matchwood, the task of providing for the survivors of a storm that affected more than a quarter of Burma's 53 million population is daunting.
Infrastructure in the broad swath of low-lying coastal area has been devastated, with hulking iron and concrete bridges that straddle the countless waterways turned into heaps of twisted rubble.
Boats that served as a lifeline for the delta's inhabitants sank in the storm, leaving aid agencies scrambling to get relief to survivors.
With the onset of the rainy season, the priority for agencies with teams already in the country is providing shelter, in the form of plastic sheeting, and clean drinking water to prevent an outbreak of waterborne disease.
Tens of thousands of people have been sheltering in schools, temples and monasteries, making the provision of sanitation a pressing need.
Aid teams have started distributing food, cooking utensils, mosquito nets and even cash in some areas where people are still able to buy food, although prices have jumped between 50% and 100%.
Thailand was among the countries trying to alleviate the tragedy, flying in another planeload of supplies yesterday, while India said it was loading two naval vessels to carry emergency aid to the Irrawaddy area.
. I have worked in situations like that and it brings back memories and a tear.
