The battle for Congress / Sarah Sarah Sarah - Ajarn Forum

Xtrafresh · 13th September 2008, 13:39

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Battle for Congress Suddenly Looks Competitive

Democrats’ double-digit lead on the “generic ballot” slips to 3 points

PRINCETON, NJ -- A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

As is true for the current structure of voting preferences for president, Democratic voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Democratic candidate in their congressional districts (92%), Republican voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Republican candidate (94%), and independents are closely split, with 44% backing the Democrat and 40% the Republican.

The new results come from a Sept. 5-7 survey conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention and mirror the resulting enhanced position of the Republican Party seen in several other indicators. These range from John McCain's improved standing against Barack Obama in the presidential race to improved favorability ratings of the Republicans, to Republican gains in party identification. The sustainability of all of these findings is an open question that polling will answer over the next few weeks.

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup's "likely voter" model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

If these numbers are sustained through Election Day -- a big if -- Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

As Gallup's long-term "generic ballot" trend shows, the Democrats held a sizable lead on this measure from the time they won back control of Congress in the fall of 2006 through last month. If the current closer positioning of the parties holds, the structure of congressional preferences will be similar to most of the period from 1994 through 2005, when Republicans won and maintained control of Congress.

Congressional Approval Also Troubling for Democrats
With only 18% of Americans in August saying they approve of the job Congress is doing, similar to the average 20% approval rating for Congress all year, the Democrats in Congress have additional cause for concern. This scant level of approval could signal that voters are in the mood for change, disproportionately hurting Democratic incumbents.
The last time the yearly average for approval of Congress approached this low a level was in 2006, when the Republicans lost majority control of Congress after 12 years in power.

The previous occasion was in 1994, when the Republicans wrested control from the Democrats. In both of these midterm election years, the average congressional approval score was 25%. However, with an 18% approval rating for Congress in 1992, the Democrats succeeded in holding their majority in Congress. That was a presidential year in which the Democratic candidate, Bill Clinton, won.

The issues raised by today's low approval ratings of Congress are reinforced by recent Gallup Poll findings that relatively few voters generally believe "most members" of Congress deserve re-election. That figure was only 36% in July, much lower than the 51% or better reading found in recent election years when the party of the sitting majority in Congress maintained power.
Bottom Line
The new USA Today/Gallup measurement of generic ballot preferences for Congress casts some doubt on the previously assumed inevitability of the Democrats' maintaining control of Congress.

Until now, the dark shadow cast by George W. Bush's widespread unpopularity has suppressed Republican Party identification nationwide, as well as voters' willingness to support the Republican candidate running for Congress in their district.

Now that the symbolic leadership of the party is shifting away from Bush and toward the suddenly popular Republican presidential ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, things may be changing. This shrinks Bush's shadow over the Republicans, revealing more of the Democrats' own shadow stemming from high disapproval of Congress. The key question is how much of this is temporary because of the tremendous bounce in support for the Republicans on many dimensions coming right off of their convention. The degree to which the Republican bounce is sustained, rather than dissipates, in the weeks ahead will determine whether the 2008 race for Congress could in fact be highly competitive, rather than a Democratic sweep.

Battle for Congress Suddenly Looks Competitive

Thank you Gov Palin for the boost. I am looking forward to a Republican President and a Republican controlled Congress. The last thing that I want to see is Nancy Foolus as Vice President if McCain croaks.

Sarah Sarah Sarah

Lotuslevi · 13th September 2008, 13:44

Yay! We have an ignorant government in control still, we don`t give a damn about universal healthcare, international diplomacy, world peace, improving the education system, fixing the economy, or giving our children good role models as political leaders. Keep up the good work my ignorant countrymen while I continue to find a life outside the stars and stripes. It just gets worse doesn`t it?

Hamster · 13th September 2008, 13:45

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Originally Posted by Xtrafresh

Thank you Gov Palin for the boost. I am looking forward to a Republican President and a Republican controlled Congress.
Sarah Sarah Sarah

What better recipe for the continuing disenfranchisement of the population, the continuing trend for policies favoring the wealthy, and the continuing condemnation of American policy by the rest of the world.

jimbo · 13th September 2008, 13:47

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Originally Posted by Xtrafresh

Sarah Sarah Sarah

Oh dear...

Do you happen to like Country Music? The Grand Ole' Opry and all that??

aging one · 13th September 2008, 14:25

xtra you would have taken Dick Cheney again if you thought he would help the ticket. Some of us have scruples and dont want an idiot for president. How do you except that the woman is so crazy she believe we came from Adam and Eve?

Xtrafresh · 13th September 2008, 14:27

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Originally Posted by Hamster

What better recipe for the continuing disenfranchisement of the population, the continuing trend for policies favoring the wealthy, and the continuing condemnation of American policy by the rest of the world.

I am still waiting for for your response concerning these points.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbo

Oh dear...

Do you happen to like Country Music? The Grand Ole' Opry and all that??

Yes I love country music with a passion. I was born and raised in the great state of Tennessee. Go Vols!

Lotuslevi · 13th September 2008, 14:37

: troll:

You all know damn well that`s the only reason he posts these things. Why give him the pleasure of a response. He`ll have plenty of pleasure masturbating to Merl Haggard in the background of John McCains speeches and pictures of Sarah Palin (although I guess that`s all she`s really good for anyway huh?)

Xtrafresh · 13th September 2008, 14:39

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Originally Posted by aging one

xtra you would have taken Dick Cheney again if you thought he would help the ticket.

Anyone would be better than BO

Quote:

Originally Posted by aging one

Some of us have scruples and dont want an idiot for president.

Than why on God's green earth do you want to elect a person like BO who has strong ties to corruption, crime lords, American terrorists, Islamic terrorists, and radical hate filled preachers? Would you rather have someone who will damn you to hell a 100 times over or someone who would pray for you?

Quote:

Originally Posted by aging one

How do you except that the woman is so crazy she believe we came from Adam and Eve?

When will you learn that most Americans do not believe in evolution?

jimbo · 13th September 2008, 15:05

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Originally Posted by Xtrafresh

Yes I love country music with a passion.

No freekin

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Originally Posted by Xtrafresh

When will you learn that most Americans do not believe in evolution?

Yea, we should ban all bbq rib shacks. It's a Holy rib!!

I reckon Xtrapat likes chewin' tobaccy, nascar, rodeos, WWF and salutin the flag too!

happynz · 13th September 2008, 15:15

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Originally Posted by Xtrafresh

Would you rather have someone who will damn you to hell a 100 times over or someone who would pray for you?

Frankly, why should I give a fuck either way? Put a prayer in one hand and shit in the other hand and clap your hands together and see what result you get.

aging one · 13th September 2008, 15:28

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Originally Posted by happynz

Frankly, why should I give a fuck either way? Put a prayer in one hand and shit in the other hand and clap your hands together and see what result you get. __________________

nice

Mr. Hales · 13th September 2008, 15:34

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Originally Posted by Xtrafresh

Yes I love country music with a passion.

you got one thing going for you then...

mcain/obamayamama...who cares...both suckers of satan's cock that ain't gonna do nuthin' but as they're told...

redhaze · 13th September 2008, 15:46

Myron's extra-easy chicken cacciatore recipe, served with spaghetti or noodles. Ingredients:

1 chicken, cut up, about 3 to 3 1/2 pounds
1 jar spaghetti sauce
chopped onions
sliced mushrooms
chopped green pepper
salt and pepper
red pepper flakes

Preparation:

Place a whole cut-up chicken (3 to 3 1/2 pounds) in the slow cooker/Crock Pot. Dump in a jar of spaghetti sauce, some cut up onions, mushrooms and green peppers. Salt and pepper to taste. (I use those little red pepper flakes too.) Cook all day on low (7 to 9 hours). Serve over noodles or spaghetti.

aging one · 13th September 2008, 16:10

kingdomcome · 13th September 2008, 16:43

I had the great fortune to have caught Palin's interview with ABC. She was talking about Iran being a threat and said they were a nucular threat. Xtra, can you tell me what a nucular threat is? I've often heard Bush refer to the same type of threat, but I can't find the meaning on any searches I've done.