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Thread: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

  1. #16
    AJ
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    Re: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

    Quote Originally Posted by SageAndOnion
    Sounds like a reasonable estimate.
    Thanks. And all figured out during my lunch break...
    "You may be a cunning linguist, but I am a master debater." - Austin Powers

  2. #17
    SageAndOnion
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    Re: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

    Quote Originally Posted by AJ
    Thanks. And all figured out during my lunch break...
    Your lunch breaks sound wild!

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    Re: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

    over-charging's got to be in there somewhere.

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    Re: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

    Quote Originally Posted by AJ
    Good ol' Stickman once estimated the number of long-term foreign residents to be around 300,000. If each of them spends 400,000 baht per year, then this would add up to 120,000,000,000 (120 billion Thai baht, or roughly 3.3 billion US dollars)...

    If the GDP is 5,000 billion baht, then 120 billion baht would be roughly 2.4% of GDP (?)
    Would a mass exodus of expats damage Thailand's economy as a whole - no. But would a couple of local businesses in Pattaya, Phuket, Hua Hin and Chiang Mai (and some ol' trades) lose income - yes.
    A country only needs to lose a few % of its GNP for everything to go into turmoil. A sudden lose of tourism and expat residents (and the expertise they bring) due to some political problem or something would decimate Thailand the way it would few other countries.

  5. #20
    AJ
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    Re: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

    Quote Originally Posted by bcqcboy
    A country only needs to lose a few % of its GNP for everything to go into turmoil. A sudden lose of tourism and expat residents (and the expertise they bring) due to some political problem or something would decimate Thailand the way it would few other countries.
    Tourism is a different topic altogether. If Thailand were to lose both sources of income, meaning the expats contribution to the economy of 2.4% (??) and the income from foreign tourists: 367,380 million baht (Thailand's revenue from foreign tourists in 2005; source:TAT http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_index.php), then this would indeed have an immense effect on the economy.

    How much is 367.38 billion Thai baht out of 5,000 billion? Roughly 7.4%? Add these 7.4% to the other 2.4%, and the sum would knock off almost 10% (or more??) of Thailand's GDP, probably resulting in huge unemployment, underemployment and poverty.
    Last edited by AJ; 5th February 2007 at 14:13.

  6. #21
    mig
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    Re: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

    Culture. 37.4% of Thailand’s GDP is made up of exporting Culture to the rest of us uncultured plebs.
    Bark like a Donkey!

  7. #22
    SageAndOnion
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    Re: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

    The figures I have seen on the net were about 4% for tourism, nowhere near 7%.
    -----
    Also as the growth in Thailand's GDP is running at around 4.7%, theoretically it would only take a year for it to recover the loss of revenue in the unlikely event that all tourists stopped coming here. This is assuming that tourism is not part of that growth obviously. The major part of that growth is in agricultural and services supply so I guess it depends on what the "services" are.
    Last edited by SageAndOnion; 5th February 2007 at 15:08. Reason: Automerged Doublepost

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    AJ
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    Re: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

    Quote Originally Posted by mig
    Culture. 37.4% of Thailandís GDP is made up of exporting Culture to the rest of us uncultured plebs.
    Yes, they are especiallly aware of this "culture" in Japan. Japanese immigration is very suspicious of some female ambassadors of Thai "culture" going to Japan for a quick yen...
    -----


    Quote Originally Posted by SageAndOnion
    The figures I have seen on the net were about 4% for tourism, nowhere near 7%.
    -----
    Also as the growth in Thailand's GDP is running at around 4.7%, theoretically it would only take a year for it to recover the loss of revenue in the unlikely event that all tourists stopped coming here...
    Yes, but tourists are coming every year, so Thailand would need a permanent replacement income of 367.38 billion baht (2005 number), like additional yearly export revenue of this amount. (As the yearly tourism income isn't the GDP growth, but a percentage of the GDP.)
    Last edited by AJ; 6th February 2007 at 09:54. Reason: Automerged Doublepost

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    Re: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

    Quote Originally Posted by Arnold!
    Good OP, Unregistered.

    I suppose google or some site will have this.

    google "cia factbook".
    pick thailand
    scroll down till you find the info you need.
    (vaguely remember its agri)
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    Re: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

    Thailand's main GDP contributor is exports of raw materials (rubber, tin, etc..) and low tech/high labor manufactured goods. This means that they are in direct competition with the rest of the developing world. Thailand's position is even more precarious because they are in such close proximity to so many developing nations and the mother of all expanding powers..China. The writing is already on the wall that if Thailand can NOT find something that will give them a comparative advantage then their glory days of being one of the rising asian economies is numbered.

    The only way Thailand will be able to compete is through high technology or niche manufacturing. This requires education, existing expertise, and large amounts of capital investment all of which Thailand can not generate domestically. Unless they reform their existing social infrastructure to reduce corruption, make foreign investment more attractive, or introduce new measures to their educational system then they are doomed. All these short term policy controls regarding the FBA and currency is just that..short term. Long term solutions require lots of infrastructure and SOCIAL changes which Thailand seems unwilling to undergo.

    In short they are screwed..I don't see how they will be competitive in the future against the big asian economies out there. I think it'll be a slow strangling decline with the "sufficiency economy" as the new justification for protectionism.

  11. #26
    AJ
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    Re: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

    Spot on!!




    As for investment, is Thailand an attractive investment destination?

    "The Japan Chamber of Commerce finds Thailand least attractive in terms of investment this year

    A recent survey of investment feasibility of ASEAN member nations by Japanese investors has found Thailand to be the least likely investment country.

    The Japanese Chamber of Commerce recently conducted a survey to determine which nation in the ASEAN community is most suited to investment by Japanese businessmen. Thailand's investment index has fallen dramatically from 2006, with latest figures from January 2007 indicating that Thailand has the lowest investment index among ASEAN nations. A leading Thai financial analyst, Assc Prof Dr. Montri Sokthiyanurak (มนตรี โสคติยานุรักษ์ ) from the National Institute of Development Administration(NIDA) reports that Thailand's investment index has dropped continuously in the last 9 months. Dr. Montri said that Japanese investment in industrial operations and heavy machinery also dropped 26.5% from the year before.

    Assc Prof Montri said that the change reflected the shift in economic conditions in the nation and Thailand would need to re-evaluate its performance on the global market and to determine whether its economic policies in the last 2 months were still conducive to international investment. Assc Prof Montri added that the government's economic measures would also need to take into account the private sector, the foreign sector, and members of the public.

    He reiterated that the government would need to reinstill confidence and create concrete measures to tackle the nation's economic burdens."

    (Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 05 February 2007)

  12. #27
    SageAndOnion
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    Re: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

    Quote Originally Posted by AJ
    Yes, but tourists are coming every year, so Thailand would need a permanent replacement income of 367.38 billion baht (2005 number), like additional yearly export revenue of this amount. (As the yearly tourism income isn't the GDP growth, but a percentage of the GDP.)
    Yes but if the GDP grew by 4.7% (in our hypothetical example), the year after all tourists stopped coming to Thailand then they have replaced the income already. People buy rubber, rice etcetera every year too, so it's no more or less sustainable than the current tourist income. I don't really see your logic here to be honest. The tourist income is no more or less "permanent" than any other revenue stream they developed.

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    Re: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

    Quote Originally Posted by SageAndOnion
    People buy rubber, rice etcetera every year too, so it's no more or less sustainable than the current tourist income.
    There is actually a rubber surplus in the world because a lot of countries have the conditions for rubber trees. Vietnam is Thailand's main competitor for rice and currently Thailand is struggling to keep its head above the water.
    I don't really see your logic here to be honest. The tourist income is no more or less "permanent" than any other revenue stream they developed.
    Tourism is such a meager part of their GDP that it's often overstated. It actually only benefits large MNCs who are heavy investors in resorts and island development. The residual benefits only filter down into the main tourist regions like Phuket. The bulk of tourism does NOT benefit Thailand all that much.

  14. #29
    Misuderstood sociopath Array bulldog's Avatar
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    Re: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

    500 billion baths? your skin would be like chinky noodles, ala pat see ui
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  15. #30
    SageAndOnion
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    Re: Thailands 'primary' source of income?

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute
    There is actually a rubber surplus in the world because a lot of countries have the conditions for rubber trees. Vietnam is Thailand's main competitor for rice and currently Thailand is struggling to keep its head above the water.
    Yes, OK. My point was that tourists are no more guaranteed to come back next year than someone who bought rubber or rice this year is guaranteed to buy rubber or rice next year - not a comment on the state of the rubber or rice industries.
    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute
    Tourism is such a meager part of their GDP that it's often overstated.
    Couldn't agree more.

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